Scientists Warn World Has Just Three Years to Act
San Jose – The world is running out of time to act on climate change. According to a new report led by climate scientists at the University of Leeds, the remaining carbon budget will be exhausted within three years at current emission levels. This means the world could permanently overshoot the 1.5°C warming limit set under the Paris Agreement, locking in catastrophic climate impacts.
The report shows that human-caused global warming hit 1.36°C in 2024, while average global temperatures reached 1.52°C. This pushes the planet into dangerous waters, where extreme weather, rising seas, and agricultural collapse become the new normal.
“Every tonne of greenhouse gas matters,” said Professor Piers Forster, lead author of the report. “The window to stay under 1.5°C is essentially shut.”
COP30 Looms as Countries Fail to Submit Climate Plans
All 197 signatories of the Paris Agreement were required to submit updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by February 2025. These climate action plans outline how nations will cut carbon emissions and adapt to global warming.
But so far, only 25 countries, covering just 20% of global emissions, have delivered. In Africa, only Somalia, Zambia, and Zimbabwe have submitted plans. The remaining 172 nations have yet to act.
This shortfall is alarming, especially with COP30 only months away. The annual UN climate conference will demand that governments show not just promises, but measurable plans for decarbonization and climate adaptation.
Africa Faces the Sharpest Climate Impacts
Africa, already on the frontline of the climate crisis, stands to lose the most from delayed global action. A recent Africa-wide study forecasts a 30% drop in crop revenue and over 50 million people losing access to safe water due to worsening droughts and heatwaves.
In South Africa, which holds the 2025 G20 presidency, leaders face pressure to steer wealthier nations toward financing a just energy transition. With the G20 responsible for 80% of global emissions, the world is watching whether Pretoria will push heavyweights like China, India, and the European Union to deliver ambitious commitments.
Key Findings From the Climate Report
The study monitored the Earth’s “vital signs,” revealing alarming trends:
- Greenhouse gases: CO₂, methane, and nitrous oxide concentrations reached record highs in 2024.
- Extreme heat: Global heatwaves have doubled compared to the early 2000s.
- Sea level rise: Coastal regions, from Lagos to Miami, face accelerating flood risks.
- Carbon budget: At current emissions, the safe allowance will be depleted by 2028.
If this were Wall Street, the response would be panic. Yet governments treat climate data with far less urgency than economic indicators.
What Needs to Happen Before COP30
The authors argue the next steps are clear and non-negotiable:
- Faster access to climate data – Leaders need real-time emissions tracking, not outdated reports.
- Fairness and equity – Rich nations must lead on cutting fossil fuels and financing poorer nations’ climate transitions.
- End fossil dependence – Alarmingly, only 10 updated NDCs include commitments to move away from oil, gas, and coal.
- Finance for resilience – Vulnerable regions need funding to build climate adaptation infrastructure.
The UNFCCC Climate Week in Addis Ababa this September will be a key moment for Africa, spotlighting access to climate finance and ensuring the path to net zero emissions by 2050 remains just and inclusive.
South Africa’s Role in the G20 Presidency
As host of the G20 in 2025, South Africa has leverage to influence the direction of global climate policy. With Canada, Brazil, Japan, the U.S., and the U.K. already submitting 2035 NDCs, the pressure is now on other major emitters—particularly the EU, China, and India—to deliver plans that align with the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C target.
Whether Pretoria uses its presidency to champion African priorities like climate finance, food security, and energy transition will shape both regional resilience and global climate justice.
Final Warning: Three Years to Act
Climate scientists say the countdown is now crystal clear. Humanity has just three years left before the carbon budget runs dry. By 2028, the world will almost certainly exceed the Paris Agreement’s safe warming limit.
“This is our last, best chance,” said co-author Debbie Rosen. “We’re not asking leaders to make impossible choices. We’re asking them to deliver on what they already promised—and to do it now.”
The urgency is undeniable. The next few years will decide whether the world charts a path toward stability or locks in a century of escalating climate chaos.
